基于幂律尾指数研究不同尺度系统对降水的影响  

The influence of different scale systems on precipitation analyzed on the basis of power-law exponent

作　　者：支蓉[1] 廉毅 封国林[2] 

机构地区：[1]扬州大学物理科学与技术学院 [2]吉林省气象科技研究所气候研究开放实验室,长春130062

出　　处：《物理学报》2007年第3期1837-1842,共6页Acta Physica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(批准号:90411008);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(批准号:2004CB418300)资助的课题.~~

摘　　要：利用中国气象局国家气候中心740站点1960—2000年日降水观测资料,统计分析表明,各气候特征区30mm以上日降水存在幂律尾分布特征,从中国的整体情况来看,幂律尾指数的均值超过了3.0,其对应的降水过程不存在平稳性成分,因此长期暴雨预报成为一个艰巨的任务.借助滤波方法进一步研究发现:日降水幂律尾分布特征是大气中各尺度系统相互作用的结果,其中一周尺度系统对30mm以上日降水幂律尾指数影响最大.Based on the daily precipitation observations of 740 stations in China from 1960 to 2000, this paper expounds the power-law tail distribution characteristic of the daily precipitation ≥ 30mm in 7 climate characteristic regions, and the power-law exponent γ 〉 3.0 in most part of China. It is found that the daily precipitation ≥ 30 mm is a non-stationary process, and it makes the long-term prediction of heavy rainfall very difficult. It is also found from further investigation using the filtering method that the power-law tail distribution characteristic is the result of the interaction of atmospheric systems of various scales, among them the one-week scale system has the most important influence on power-law tail exponent of the daily precipitation ≥ 30 mm.

关 键 词：幂律尾指数 传递熵 暴雨 降水 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]