基于供需关系的铁路货运需求预测  

The prediction method of China railway freight transportation's demand based on the relationship of supply and demand

作　　者：保鲁昆[1] 辛灵[1] 鲍晶晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《交通科技与经济》2007年第2期99-101,共3页Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications

摘　　要：分析运输结构变化对铁路货运供给的影响、铁路货运需求与国民经济发展的关系以及铁路货运供需关系。总结以往铁路货运量预测方法、特点,把铁路货物运输需求量按供给关系分成供小于求和供需平衡两个阶段,并分别提出相应预测函数。This paper analyzes the influence of transportation structure＇s variety on transportation supply, the relationship between national economy and railway freight transportation demand, the relation between supply and demand of the railway freight transportation. Based on the analysis, this paper sums up the former prediction methods＇ character. In terms of the relation between supply and demand, the prediction of railway freight transportation volume was separated by two stages： supply is smaller than demand and supply is bigger than demand. The paper then puts forward the predict function correspondingly. It provides methods for the prediction. It can also provide the decision support for railroad＇s development.

关 键 词：铁路货运 运输结构 国民经济 供需分析 预测 

分 类 号：U491.227[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]