用数值预报产品的逐步LOGISTIC动力统计释用天气预报模型  

STEPWISE LOGISTIC DYNAMIC-STATISTIC INTERPRETATION FORECAST MODEL FOR WEATHER USING NWP PRODUCTS

作　　者：陈舜华[1] 吕纯廉 范淦清[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京气象学院 [2]江苏省气象台

出　　处：《气象科学》1996年第1期81-85,共5页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金："八五"国家科技攻关项目!85-906-05-02

摘　　要：Logistic判别分析（LDA）可以认为是Logistic回归的预报形式，LDA还可由广义线性模型（GLIM）大大简化，对所有观测数据，GLIM可用矩阵形式描述，Logstic判别的系数可用Newton－Scoring算法得到，用ML-估计对LDA外生变量的逐步筛选是在对β作似然比检验的基础上进行的（称为逐步Logistic判别分析SLDA）。我们用数值预报产品建立了中国南京3－5月逐日的逐步LOGISTIC动力统计释用天气预报模型。The Logistic Discrimination Analysis (LDA) can be regarded as the forecasting form of the logistic regression. The LDA is greatly facilitated by the well-known class of generalized linear models (GLIM). For all observations the GLIM can be described by a matrix form.The logistic discrimination coefficients can be obtained by Newton-scoring algo-rithm. A Stepwise selection of exogenous variables for LDA (SLDA) using ML estimation is based on likelihood ratio tests for the β. We use the SLDA to model the Dynamic-Statistic Interpretation Forecast Model for weather situation from March to May in Nanjing, China using NWP Products

关 键 词：天气预报 数值预报产品 天气预报模型 动力统计 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P456.7