我国上市公司财务失败的预警模型分析  

Analysis of the Forewarning Model of Financial Failure for Chinese Listed Companies

作　　者：熊小莉[1] 史锐[2] 王娴静[3] 

机构地区：[1]徽商职业学院 [2]安徽广播电视大学 [3]合肥工业大学

出　　处：《安徽广播电视大学学报》2007年第1期58-61,98,共5页Journal of Anhui Radio & TV University

摘　　要：阐述了上市公司财务失败预警分析的研究意义;在对国内外财务预警模型进行分析的基础上,选用了logistic回归方法来建立我国上市公司财务失败的预警模型;最后结合实例对所建立的模型进行了检验,发现该模型有着较高的识别率,在一定程度上实现了对上市公司财务失败的预警作用。In this paper, the great significance to study the forewarning model of financial failure for Chinese listed companies is first expounded. Then based on the introduction and appraisal of the domestic and foreign forewarning models, the logistic regression method is s＇elect.ed to build the model for listed companies in our country, and the real diagnosis analytic method is utilized to verify its effectiveness. It is proved that the model is good at recognition and can perform a forewarning function for listed companies＇ financial failure to a certain extent.

关 键 词：上市公司 财务失败 预警模型 logistic回归模弛 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]