基于生命周期的分时度假项目风险识别  

Risk Identification of Timeshare Project Based on Life Cycle

作　　者：丁顺[1] 王晓鸣[1] 陈华荣[1] 王占军[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学土木工程与力学学院

出　　处：《华中科技大学学报（城市科学版）》2007年第1期47-50,共4页Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology

基　　金：国家星火重大计划资助项目(2002EA760001)

摘　　要：分时度假是一种将现代旅游业和房地产业有机结合的新兴发展行业,其研究与实践在我国尚处于起步阶段,因此讨论了分时度假产品的性质及RC I运营机制。应用项目生命周期理论,将分时度假项目的生命周期划分为计划、建设、销售和运营四个阶段,分析了各阶段的工作重点和风险识别需求。以可控性风险为识别对象,建立了分时度假项目的风险识别指标,详细讨论了分时度假项目各阶段的立项、方案设计、建设资金、工程质量、销售信用、销售合同、资本回收和企业破产等8类主要风险,建立了基于模糊综合评价的分时度假项目风险评价方法。通过实例,对分时度假项目总体风险和生命周期各阶段风险进行了量化分析,最后提出了项目风险的相应控制对策。Timeshare is a new combination of modern tourism and real estate industries, so its research and practice is still at the initial stage. The paper discussed the nature and RCI operation mechanism of timeshare products, studied the life cycle stages of timeshare project with partition of planning phase, construction phase, sales phase and operation phase, analyzed important contents and risk identification demand. With the targets of controllable risks, the paper put forward the risk identification index of timeshare project, discussed the various stages of the timeshare project, including risks of plans, design, construction, engineering quality, sales credit, sales contracts, capital return and bankruptcy; established a risk evaluation model of timeshare project based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, made an application example to quantify the total risk and the various stages risk, put forward the project＇s risk control measures.

关 键 词：分时度假 项目风险 生命周期 识别 评价 

分 类 号：F224.5[经济管理—国民经济] F590