Markov和灰色模型在土地利用预测中的应用  

The Application of Markov and Gray Model in Land Use Prediction

作　　者：赵小汎[1] 陈文波[2] 代力民[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所 [2]江西农业大学国土资源与环境学院,南昌330045

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2007年第2期19-21,共3页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(30470302);辽宁省科学技术计划项目(KJTGG0402);辽宁省院校合作工程项目(KJTSY-HZ0501-02)资助

摘　　要：马尔柯夫和灰色模型都适用于土地利用变化预测,根据同一套土地利用数据分别用两种模型预测,将所得结果相互验证、对比分析,提高预测可信度。以江西省新建县为例,两种预测方法的预测结果都表明,若继续保持1996-2000年的变化速度,耕地和未利用地将持续减少,林地和建设用地呈增长趋势,而草地和水域相对较稳定,草地有下降趋势,水域呈缓慢上升趋向。预测结果可为土地利用规划管理及政策的制定提供科学依据,研究方法为土地利用变化预测研究提供一种思路。Both Markov and Gray models can be used in the prediction of land use change. Verification and comparison between two kinds of model predicted results based on the same set land use data can improve prediction credence. As a case study in Xinjian county of Jiangxi province, the results both indicated that if continuing to keep up the change velocity, arable land and unused land will decrease all along; forest land and built-up area shows a tendency to increase, however,grassland and water area will be relatively stabilized,grassland showing a tendency to decrease,water area showing a tendency to increase slowly. The predicted results can provide scientific basis for planning land use and constituting land use policy,and point out a way for land use change prediction research.

关 键 词：马尔柯夫模型 灰色模型 土地利用变化预测 新建县 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]