南海台风暴雨统计释用预报方法探讨  

A Study of Heavy Rain Prediction in Typhoon over the South China Sea with Statistic-Method

作　　者：柳艳菊[1] 马开玉[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学系,南京210093

出　　处：《气象科学》1996年第2期173-177,共5页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

摘　　要：本文根据降水量方程和1985─90年南海台风暴雨资料及欧洲中心数值模式产品，利用逐步判别方法筛选因子和Bays准则，分别建立海南和广东沿海24─48小时台风最大暴雨量判别函数方程。计算和试验结果表明这一方法具有较好的预报潜力。In this paper, based on precipiation equation,the heavy rain data in typhoon over the south China sea, and the numerical model production provided by European Metaorology Center the discrimination equations of 24-48h maximum rainfall in Henan and the coasts of Guandong provinces have been estabilished by using Bays' principle. The predictors in the equations are selected by the stepwise discrimination method. The results show that the equations built in the way have great potential predictability.

关 键 词：南海 台风 暴雨 统计预报 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P457.6