相似流域选择的随机分析方法  

The Stochastic Assessment Method for Choosing Hydrological Similar Basin

作　　者：朱勇 宋萌勃[2] 雷红富[3] 李晶[3] 谢平[3] 

机构地区：[1]上海勘测设计研究院,上海200434 [2]长江工程职业技术学院,湖北赤壁437302 [3]水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室武汉大学,武汉430072

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2007年第3期4-6,共3页China Rural Water and Hydropower

摘　　要：为了改进传统水文比拟法在相似流域选择上存在的不足,提出一种基于贝叶斯公式的随机分析方法。通过计算设计流域与备择参证流域对应的多个特征指标相似的加权概率,利用最大似然分类的原则,确定加权概率最大者对应的参证流域为所选择的相似流域。通过实例计算分析,并与灰关联分析法、模糊优选法进行比较验证,其结果有效地说明了该方法的可行性。In order to overcome the shortcoming of conventional hydrologic analogy on choosing similar basin, a stochastic assessment method is developed and applied based on Bayes formula. By computing the similar weighed probability of multi-character indices between design basin and benchmark basins, the reference basins of maximal weighed probability will be chosen as the anticipant similar basin based on maximum likelihood clacification principle. Tested by example together with the other two methods, i.e. the fuzzy assessment method and gray assessment method, the results verify effectively that this method is useful and feasible.

关 键 词：水文比拟法 相似流域 贝叶斯公式 随机分析方法 不确定性 

分 类 号：TV12[水利工程—水文学及水资源]