灰色马尔可夫链在预测高温后钢筋强度退化中的应用  

Application of Grey Markov Chain in Prediction of the Degradation of Steel Bars After Fire

作　　者：张玉明[1] 成林燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学建工学院,徐州221008

出　　处：《吉林建筑工程学院学报》2007年第1期25-27,32,共4页Journal of Jilin Architectural and Civil Engineering

摘　　要：灰色预测模型可以在基础资料缺乏的条件下建立模型进行预测,但对于波动性较大的数据,它的预测精度比较低,而马尔可夫链模型可以克服数据波动较大的局限性.在灰色预测的基础上,引入马尔可夫链预测,建立起了灰色马尔可夫预测模型,并且针对高温后钢筋强度退化的试验数据进行了实证分析.证明了利用灰色马尔可夫链对高温后钢筋强度退化随时进行预测,是一种行之有效的新方法.Grey forecast method can be used to establish model to forcast with less data, but to the fluctuation data, its accuracy is low, Markov model can overcome this defection. A grey Markov model is presented by means of bombing grey system with dispersed Markov chains theory, the grey Markov model for predicting the degrada- tion of steel bars after fire is established. It is shown that this predicting method by grey Markov is easy to implement, and which is a new method in prediction of the degradation of steel bars after fire.

关 键 词：灰色马尔可夫链 高温后 钢筋性能退化 预测 

分 类 号：TU378[建筑科学—结构工程]