江西食物生产波动特征与效率研究  

FEATURES OF FOOD FLUCTUATION AND PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY IN JIANGXI PROVINCE OF CHINA

作　　者：吕爱清[1] 邱爱保[2] 卞新民[1] 杜国平[2] 陈路扬[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学农学院,江苏南京210095 [2]宜春学院,江西宜春336000

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2007年第2期196-201,共6页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(波动;效率与区域社会安全05JA790069)

摘　　要：食物波动与效率是食物安全的重要研究内容。1993～2003年江西省平均食物生产全要素相对生产率为0．974，其规模效益基本上呈现常数规模效益与规模效益递增交替波动现象。灰色关联分析表明，粮食产量、油料产量、肉类产量、糖料产量等与食物总量具有显著关联性，其灰色关联序为：粮食产量〉油料产量〉肉类产量〉糖料产量〉禽蛋产量〉水果产量〉牛奶产量，所以要保证食物总量安全，必须首先保障粮食、油料、肉类等的生产。The efficiency and fluctuation of food production are important research contents in terms of food security. It is indicated that the stability of the three major food components, i.e. grain, oil and meat, has increased in Jiangxi Province, China. The average total factor relative productivity （TFRP） of food production was 0. 974 in Jiangxi Province from 1993 to 2003. Food production exhibited basically the alternate fluctuation phenomenon between the increase in scale efficiencies and constant scale efficiencies in the province. A good relationship was observed between the food production fluctuation and the fluctuation of food production factors, such as agricultural labour and irrigated area, with their importance having the following order： fluctuation of irrigated area 〉 fluctuation of total plant area 〉 fluctuation of agricultural labour fluctuation of input agricultural capital 〉 fluctuation of consumption of chemical fertilizer. It is shown that the food fluctuation trend coincided basically with the TFRP from 1978 to 2003 in Jiangxi Province. The TFRP was high when food fluctuation was low or food expression had great positive fluctuation,and when food expression experienced great negative fluctuation,the TFRP was low accordingly.

关 键 词：食物波动 聚类分析 灰色关联分析 全要素相对生产率 

分 类 号：F426.82[经济管理—产业经济]