1992—2002年中国产业结构的变化——基于列标尺量模型的分析  

The Analysis of China's Economic Structural Change from 1992 to 2002 by A Columnscaler Model

作　　者：唐志鹏[1] 王志标[1] 祝坤福[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院

出　　处：《统计研究》2007年第3期38-43,共6页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委项目(60474063);中科院国际合作重点项目(GJHZ0515)资助

摘　　要：为测定国民经济产业结构的变动,本文创建了一个基于投入产出技术的列标尺量模型。它将部门的结构系数变动分为直接产品消耗系数的变动和增加值结构系数的变动。该模型对中国1992—2002年间部门结构变动作了计算分析,主要结论是这一阶段我国经济结构变动中,农业、煤炭采选业、石油加工和天然气开采业、化学工业、金属制品业、交通运输设备制造业、电子及通信设备制造业及商业饮食业的主要影响因素是增加值结构系数的变动,但直接产品消耗系数对其他工业、建筑业、食品制造和烟草加工及其他社会服务业的影响也逐渐显著,列标尺量模型的提出为产业的规划调整提供了有效的参考依据。In order to measure economic structural change and identify the factors driving the changes, a columnscaler model based on input-output techniques is constructed, which decomposes the structural change into average changes in direct products input and value-added structural coefficients. By applying the model, the paper calculates the changes in China from 1992 to 2002. The results show that changes in value-added structural coefficients account for agriculture sector, coal mining, washing and processing sector, crude petroleum and natural gas products sector, chemicals sector, metal products sector, transport equipment sector, tel equipment sector and trade and eating and drinking sector, and direct input coefficients affect other industry sector, construction sector, manufacturing of food products and tobacco products sector and other services sector evidently. A columnsoaler model can help make industrial policy and adjust industrial structure.

关 键 词：绝对列标尺量 相对列标尺量 直接产品消耗系数 增加值结构系数 

分 类 号：F222.33[经济管理—国民经济]