图们江下游延迟型冷害与厄尔尼诺(拉尼娜)事件  

Correlation between delayed cool injury in the lower reaches of Tumen River and El Nino(La Nina)

作　　者：金爱芬[1] 

机构地区：[1]延边大学理学院地理系,吉林延吉133002

出　　处：《延边大学农学学报》2007年第1期14-18,共5页Agricultural Science Journal of Yanbian University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(4046100)

摘　　要：根据图们江下游珲春站1957～2002年46年的日照时数观测资料,分析了图们江下游延迟型冷害与厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜的关系.结果表明,厄尔尼诺(拉尼娜)事件与图们江下游延迟型冷害显著相关.厄尔尼诺事件会增加延迟型冷害发生的概率.拉尼娜事件发生时一般不会出现延迟型冷害.厄尔尼诺事件发生当年和后1年有可能发生延迟型冷害,其概率分别为60%和40%.拉尼娜事件发生后1年有可能发生延迟型冷害,其发生概率为58%.This paper used monthly mean temperature data during May to September from 1957 to 2002 year in the lower reaches of Tumen river to research on the relationship between the delayed cool injury and El Nino and La Nina by statistical methods. The result showed that there was a significant correlation between the delayed cool injury and El Nino and La Nina. El Nino events increase probability that occurs the delayed cool injury. There is no delayed cool injury during La Nina events period. It is possible to occur the delayed cool injury during the El Nino events period and after the period. Its probability is 60 % and 40 % respectively. It is possible to occur delayed cool injury after the La Nina events period. Its probability is 58 %.

关 键 词：图们江下游 延迟型低温冷害 厄尔尼诺事件 拉尼娜事件 

分 类 号：S426[农业科学—植物保护]