应急管理中的动态模糊分类分级算法研究  

A multi-Stage Dynamic and Fuzzy Classification Algorithm and Application in Emergency Management

作　　者：刘佳[1] 陈建明[1] 陈安[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100080

出　　处：《管理评论》2007年第3期38-43,共6页Management Review

摘　　要：在突发事件处置过程中,事件发生、发展、演变的情况是不断变化的,在救援过程中所掌握的信息是逐渐增加,因此需要根据事态的变化进行动态的分类分级。文章利用模糊决策的相关理论方法,提出了动态模糊分类分级模型,估计出未来某时间点的事件级别,并根据马尔可夫原理给出了级别转移的概率,对模糊决策结果进行检验,在此基础上进行了案例应用。Dynamic instead of static classification is always needed in emergency management since related information is changing and increasing in the process of incident development.In this paper,a multi-stage dynamic and fuzzy classification algorithm is proposed based on fuzzy decision theory. The rank of future incident could be given,which can help understand the trend of accidence.Transition probability in Markov chain could be applied to verify the rank so that we can adjust the algorithm index.A case study with 4 experts and 5 factors is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the algorithm.

关 键 词：应急管理 分类分级 模糊决策 转移概率 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]