中国交通运输业发展的实证研究  

An Empirical Study on the Performance of Transportation Industry in China

作　　者：孙湘海[1] 刘潭秋[2] 

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学交通运输学院,湖南长沙410076 [2]长沙理工大学经济学院,湖南长沙410076

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2007年第2期54-57,68,共5页Journal of Statistics and Information

摘　　要：采用协整和误差纠正模型与方法,对中国改革开放20多年来交通运输发展与一些相关影响因素之间的关系进行实证研究。结果表明:旅客运输需求与国民收入、乘车费用之间,货物运输与国民经济、燃油价格之间分别存在长期稳定关系。研究认为:中国交通的发展应适当超前于国民经济的发展。同时,研究还发现:“旅游黄金周”的实施并不是促进中国旅客运输需求的显著影响因素。This paper employs the concepts of co- integration and error correction to analyze the relationships between variables representing transportation performance and other variables in China. The results show that there are two long- run stable relationships, one among passenger- kilometers （PKM）, gross national income （GNI） and traffic fare （TF）, and the other among freight ton- kilometers （FKM）, gross domestic product （GDP） and the retail price index of fuels （RPIF）. This study suggests that the development of transportation go faster than that of GNI and GDP. Moreover, in fact, the implementation of the policy about golden week for tourism does not significantly have an effect on transportation performance.

关 键 词：交通运输 协整 误差纠正模型 

分 类 号：U111[交通运输工程]