不确定性推理及其在斜坡类地质灾害危险性区划中的应用  

Uncertainty Reasoning and Its Application in the Slope Geological Hazard Zonation

作　　者：丛威青[1] 潘懋[1] 李铁锋[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学造山带与地壳演化教育部重点实验室北京大学地球与空间科学学院,北京100871 [2]中国地质环境监测院,北京100081

出　　处：《北京大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第2期198-203,共6页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis

摘　　要：通过对不确定性推理方法尤其是概率推理方法的研究,将其引入到斜坡类地质灾害危险性区划之中。在对不确定因子法、主观贝叶斯法、贝叶斯网络法和影响图法等4种不确定性推理方法进行原理分析的基础上,分别给出了其在斜坡类地质灾害危险性区划中的应用思路,并在辽宁省鞍山市岫岩县进行了试验,进而总结形成了一套基于不确定性推理开展斜坡类地质灾害危险性区划的方法体系,实现了对传统区划方法的改进。The uncertainty reasoning especially the probability reasoning was imported into the slope geological hazard zonation. Based on the analysis on the uncertain factor method, subjective bayes method, bayes network method and influence diagram method, the methods of their usage in the slope geological hazard zonation were pointed. A flew way of the hazard zonation based on the uncertainty reasoning which is a development of the traditional methods was promoted and tested in Xiuyan County of Anshan city in Liaoning Province.

关 键 词：不确定性推理 概率推理 斜坡类地质灾害 区划 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]