人口波动性较大地区的人口预测模型选择——以湖北省保康县为例  

Study on Model Selection of Population Prediction in Areas with Great Population Fluctuation

作　　者：李丹妮[1] 王亚男[2] 毛显后[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学资源学院土地所,湖北武汉430074 [2]天津市城市规划设计研究院,天津300000

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2007年第8期2408-2409,共2页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：对土地利用规划中常用的5种人口预测方法作了系统的介绍,并从原理、特点、使用条件等角度加以对比、分析,最后结合保康县的实际情况选取合适的模型,对保康县2010、2020年人口总规模进行了预测。The 5 kinds of commonly used population prediction methods in land use planning were introduced. And their principles, characteristics, exploitation conditions were compared and analyzed. Finally, according to the actual situation of Baokang County, the total population scales in 2010 and 2020 were predicted.

关 键 词：人口预测方法 模型选择 

分 类 号：C921.2[社会学—人口学]