石羊河流域近50a来水资源变化的定量分析  

Quantitative analysis of water resources variation for Shiyang River Basin for recent 50 years

作　　者：李相虎[1] 赵鑫[1] 任立良[2] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第2期164-167,共4页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40302031);香港乐施会基金资助项目(CHG-0702-04E);国家重点基础研究"973"资助项目(2006CB400502)

摘　　要：利用主成分回归分析法,选取石羊河流域的5个影响因素进行定量分析,得到3个主成分,其累计方差贡献率达92.786%.根据3个主成分各自对应的特征向量特点,分别解释为人为因子、温度因子和降水因子并进行回归分析.根据回归方程,近50 a来人为因子在水资源变化过程中起主导负作用,其影响力占总影响力的-58.48%,大大超过了降水因子22.35%的正作用;而温度因子虽其影响力不是很大,只占总影响力的-19.17%,却加剧了水资源进一步减少的趋势.Shiyang River Basin is a typical fragile zone of water resources in arid regions. Long-term natural evolution and human activities have seriously destroyed the balance of the water cyclic system of this region. By use of the principal component regression analysis, 5 influencing factors were quantitatively analyzed, and 3 principal components with the accumulative variance contribution rate 92.786% were obtained. According to the corresponding eigenvectors, the 3 principal components were explained as the anthropogenic factor, the temperature factor, and the precipitation factor. The regression analysis shows that the anthropngenic factor plays a leading negative role in water resources variation in recent 50 years, and its effect accounts for - 58.48% of the total effect, which is much greater than the positive effect of the precipitation factor with the effect accounting for 22.35%. It is also demonstrated that, although the effect of the temperature factor only accounts for - 19.17%, it accelerates the decrease of water resources.

关 键 词：主成分回归 气候变化 石羊河流域 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]