灰色模型在血吸虫病感染率预测中的应用  

THE APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL(1,1) IN THE PREDICTION OF SCHISTOSOMIASIS INFECTION RATE

作　　者：张姝 张强[1] 尹治成[2] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学华西公共卫生学院卫生统计学教研室,成都610041 [2]四川省疾病预防控制中心血吸虫病预防控制科

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2007年第7期1291-1293,共3页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：[目的]探讨灰色GM(1,1)模型在血吸虫病人群感染率预测中的应用。[方法]资料来自于四川省西昌市川兴监测点2000～2005年连续6年血吸虫病监测数据,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型对该资料进行拟合,确定GM(1,1)预测模型,并对今后3年血吸虫病感染率进行预测。[结果]人群感染率预测模型为X(1)(i+1)=-54.4781e-0.37524i+84.4281,连续3年预测值分别为2.61%,1.79%和1.23%。[结论]GM(1,1)模型可以用于血吸虫病感染率的预测,为合理分配卫生资源提供决策依据。[Objective]To explore the application of grey model（1,1）in the perdication of schistosomiasis infeetion rate of population.[Methods]The data wre collected from the sureillance spot of Chuanxing,Xichang city,Sichuan province from 2000to 2005.Based on the Grey Model（1,1）,the predication model was established to predict the schistosomi asis infection rate for the next 3 years.[Results]The model of the infecation rate of the population was X^（1）（i＋1）=-54.4781e^-0.37534i＋84.4281.The predicted values of future three years were 2.61%,1.79% and 1.23% respectively.[Conclusion]Grey model （1,1）cand be used to predict the schistosomiasis infection rate and provide decision support for the government.

关 键 词：血吸虫病 预测模型 CM(1 1) 

分 类 号：R532.21[医药卫生—内科学]