天津市及周围地区近500a旱涝变化分析  

Analysis on Flood/Drought Variance in Tianjin City and Its Surrounding Region for Recent 500 Years

作　　者：苏同卫[1] 李可军[1] 李启秀[1] 穆军[1] 高朋鑫[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院国家天文台/云南天文台,云南昆明650011

出　　处：《干旱气象》2007年第1期21-24,共4页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：西部之光项目"太阳活动的地球物理效应(034201101)"资助

摘　　要：为揭示天津市及其周围地区(±3°)旱涝变化的时间演变特征和变化趋势,采用相关分析、累积距平、滑动t检验、小波分析等统计分析方法,对该地区5个站1470-2000年的旱涝资料进行了分析。结果表明,该地区旱涝变化基本一致,旱年、涝年呈正态分布;在这段时期里,有4个比较显著的干旱、洪涝阶段;旱涝变化有大约10,20和36 a的周期性,和太阳活动周期密切相关。To reveal the temporal variation characteristics of drought/flood in Tianjin city and its surrounding region （ ± 3°）, the drought or flood data of 5 stations there from 1470 to 2000 were analyzed by using statistical analysis methods, such as correlation analysis, accumulative anomaly, moving t - test, wavelet method and so on. The results show that the flood or drought variance was almost the same; the years occurring flood or drought presented normal distribution; there were four evident flood/drought periods during 1470 -2000; the periodicity of flood/drought variance was about 10, 20 and 36 years.

关 键 词：天津 旱涝变化 累积距平 小波分析 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]