人民币实际有效汇率的变化对我国进出口的影响  

The Effects of Real and Effective RMB Exchange Rate on Our Import and Export

作　　者：封思贤[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学商学院金融系

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2007年第4期3-13,共11页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：①本文是教育部人文社会科学重大研究项目(编号:05JJD790011);江苏省社会科学基金项目(编号:06JSCYJ004)的阶段性研究成果之一。

摘　　要：本文从空间和时间两个角度全面考察了人民币实际有效汇率的变化对我国进出口的影响。结果表明,人民币汇率的变化会显著影响我国的进出口。但是,这种影响程度在1994年以后明显地出现了下降趋势。同时,人民币汇率变化对我国进出口的调整存在明显的J曲线效应,其中进口变动大致滞后于汇率变动2个季度,而出口则滞后1个季度,滞后期限均短于西方发达国家。本文分析了其中的原因并提出了相关建议。This paper gives a general study on the influence of real and effective RMB Exchange Rate from the perspective of space and time. It shows that the fluctuation of exchange rate affects our import and export significantly. But the regulatory functions of RMB exchange rate have shown an obvious weakening trend since 1994. It also shows that J Curve Effect lies in the influence of our trade balance by the fluctuation of RMB remarkably. Changes in our imports lag two quarters to the actual exchange rate changes, and exports lag one quarter. Our lag periods are shorter than the western developed countries. We explain the reasons of these empirical conclusions and give some advices.

关 键 词：人民币实际有效汇率指数 马歇尔-勒纳条件 时滞效应 协整方法 

分 类 号：F752.8[经济管理—国际贸易]