主观贝叶斯主义的概率理论  

Probability Theory of Subjective Bayesianism

作　　者：任晓明[1] 臧勇[2] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学逻辑与认知研究所,广东广州510275 [2]北京大学哲学系,北京100081

出　　处：《华北水利水电学院学报（社会科学版）》2007年第2期17-21,共5页Journal of North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地2002-2003年度重大项目<逻辑学在人文科学中的应用>(02JAZJD720018)的序列成果之一

摘　　要：概率理论产生后,出现了多种解释。客观频率主义在两方面存在不足:单个事件问题和频率极限问题。主观贝叶斯主义试图解决频率主义的不足,认为概率体现了人的信念度,并使用打赌模式和贝叶斯定理创立了主观主义概率理论。这一理论又扩展到主体交互概率理论,强调群体共同趣向和信息流的传递,从而对科学哲学与决策博弈中如何协调主体信念度起到了启示作用。After the probability theory comes into being, there are many interpretations about it. Objective frequencism has two drawbacks, one is singular event problem and the other is frequency limit problem. Subjective Bayesianism tries to solve the problems facing frequencism. This school thinks that probability reflects the degree of belief of people and uses betting model and Bayes ＇ theorem to establish the probability theory of subjectivism which has been extended to the theory of intersubjective probability and emphasizes the common interest of group and the delivery of information flow. This cast light on how to coordinate the subjective degree of belief in the philosophy of science and game of decision.

关 键 词：频率主义 主观主义 贝叶斯定理 主体交互 

分 类 号：B085[哲学宗教—哲学理论]