近50年来民勤县气温变化特征及其原因分析  

Analysis on variation characteristics of temperature in Minqin during recent 50 years

作　　者：张宝军[1] 马金珠[2] 赵鑫[1] 黄天明[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源与环境学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2007年第2期226-229,234,共5页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40671029);香港乐施会基金项目(CHG07-04E)

摘　　要：通过对民勤气象站1956～2000年气温观测资料统计分析,并运用非参数检验法(M-K法)对气温年际变化趋势检验和各个季节平均气温进行了差异性分析。结果表明:(1)自20世纪60年代后期以来,民勤年均气温呈上升趋势,10年平均增幅约为0.305℃,且达到0.05显著性水平。最低温度出现在1967年,年均气温为6.5℃;1967年之后,气温波动上升,20世纪90年代升幅明显,较60年代上升约1.2℃。(2)年内气温变化存在季节性差异。除夏季外,春、秋、冬三个季节气温均呈上升趋势且达到0.05显著性水平,增温幅度从大到小依次为冬季、秋季和春季。其中,冬季和秋季对全年平均气温增加贡献较大,夏季气温贡献最小,这可能跟夏季降水较多抵消了气温升高有关,但其更深层次的原因尚需进一步讨论分析。此外对气温变化的原因进行了简要分析。Based on the temperature data in Minqin from 1956 to 2000, this paper analyses the inter-annual temperature variation trend for 45 years and their seasonal differences using non-parametrical method. The results indicate. （1） the annual average temperature in Minqin has been ascending since 1960s. The minimum of annual average temperature which was 6.5℃ emerged in 1967, and then the temperature went up unevenly. The temperature in 1990s was 1.2℃ higher than that in 1960s. （2） There were seasonal differences on variation of temperature. The temperature in Spring,Autumn and Winter was ascending and their temperature increases were significant at 0.05 level. The temperature contribution was large in winter, and then followed by autumn and spring. The contribution of summer to annual average temperature was the minimum; the reason was probably that the ascending temperature was counteracted by the much rainfall; more reasons were still to be discussed in the future. In addition, we also briefly analyze the reason of air temperature change in Minqin.

关 键 词：气温变化 MANN-KENDALL法 民勤县 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]