干旱期水库供水风险分析的多目标规划方法  

Multi-objective planning method for reservoir water-supply risk analysis during drought periods

作　　者：方红远 甘升伟 花金祥[2] 

机构地区：[1]扬州大学,江苏省扬州市225009 [2]山东省水利勘测设计院,济南250013

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2007年第2期14-18,26,共6页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50479030);江苏省高校自然科学基金项目(04KJB570170)

摘　　要：阐述了干旱期供水工程运行调度策略研究的必要性,以及水资源规划与管理研究领域目前较常用的干旱期水库供水风险特征体系的一些主要表征指标;建立了基于供水可靠性最大、供水破坏恢复能力最强以及单一时段破坏深度最小的多目标混合整数规划模型,对模型结构进行了具体描述;在实例应用研究中,阐述了多目标的处理方法,并针对多种目标权重组合和水库运行起始蓄水量方案对模型运算结果的影响进行了分析,验证了多目标规划方法在干旱期水库供水风险分析方面的可行性。The index for expressing the reservoir water-supply risk during droughts and the importance of study of operation policy of water-supply projects during droughts are described. The multi-objective of mixed integer programming model is set up, the objective is composed of the water shortage period number and the maximum water-deficit of one-period, it could obtain the optimal operation policy of maximized the reliability and resilience and minimized the vulnerability of reservoir water supply. The way of treating multi-objective function in application of the model is presented. The feasibility of practical use of multi-objective mixed integer programming model for reservoir water-supply risk analysis is verified by comparing the different characteristics of model for various weights of objective and starting storages of reservoir.

关 键 词：水资源规划 运行策略 多目标决策 干旱期 供水 风险分析 

分 类 号：TV212.5[水利工程—水文学及水资源]