Numerical Research on Effects Upon Precipitation Forecast of Doppler-Radar Estimated Precipitation and Retrieved Wind Field Under Different Model Initial Schemes  

作　　者：王叶红 赵玉春 崔春光 

机构地区：[1]Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain,CMA [2]Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory

出　　处：《Acta meteorologica Sinica》2007年第1期98-113,共16页

基　　金：Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei under Grant No. 2003ABA009;the National "Ten-Five" Key Science and Technology Project under Grant No. 2001BA607B;the "National Key Developing Program for Basic Science" Project under Grant No. 2004CB418307.

摘　　要：On the basis of the joint estimated 1-h precipitation from Changde, Jingzhou, and Yichang Doppler radars as well as Wuhan digital radar, and the retrieved wind fields from Yichang and Jingzhou Doppler radars, a series of numerical experiments with an advanced regional η-coordinate model （AREM） under different model initial schemes, i.e., Grapes-3DVAR, Barnes objective analysis, and Barnes-3DVAR, are carried out for a torrential rain process occurring along the Yangtze River in the 24-h period from 2000 BT 22 July 2002 to investigate the effects of the Doppler-radar estimated rainfall and retrieved winds on the rainfall forecast. The main results are as follows： （1） The simulations are obviously different under three initial schemes with the same data source （the radiosounding and T213L31 analysis）. On the whole, Barnes-3DVAR, which combines the advantages of the Barnes objective analysis and the Grapes-3DVAR method, gives the best simulations： well-simulated rain band and clear mesoscale structures, as well as their location and intensity close to observations. （2） Both Barnes-3DVAR and Grapes-3DVAR schemes are able to assimilate the Doppler-radar estimated rainfall and retrieved winds, but differences in simulation results are very large, with Barnes-3DVAR＇s simulation much better than Grapes-3DVAR＇s. （3） Under Grapes- 3DVAR scheme, the simulation of 24-h rainfall is improved obviously when assimilating the Doppler-radar estimated precipitation into the model in compared with the control experiment; but it becomes a little worse when assimilating the Doppler-radar retrieved winds into the model, and it becomes worse obviously when assimilating the Doppler-radar estimated precipitation as well as retrieved winds into the model. However, the simulation is different under Barnes-3DVAR scheme. The simulation is improved to a certain degree no matter assimilating the estimated precipitation or retrieved winds, or both of them. The result is the best when assimilating both of them into theOn the basis of the joint estimated 1-h precipitation from Changde, Jingzhou, and Yichang Doppler radars as well as Wuhan digital radar, and the retrieved wind fields from Yichang and Jingzhou Doppler radars, a series of numerical experiments with an advanced regional η-coordinate model （AREM） under different model initial schemes, i.e., Grapes-3DVAR, Barnes objective analysis, and Barnes-3DVAR, are carried out for a torrential rain process occurring along the Yangtze River in the 24-h period from 2000 BT 22 July 2002 to investigate the effects of the Doppler-radar estimated rainfall and retrieved winds on the rainfall forecast. The main results are as follows： （1） The simulations are obviously different under three initial schemes with the same data source （the radiosounding and T213L31 analysis）. On the whole, Barnes-3DVAR, which combines the advantages of the Barnes objective analysis and the Grapes-3DVAR method, gives the best simulations： well-simulated rain band and clear mesoscale structures, as well as their location and intensity close to observations. （2） Both Barnes-3DVAR and Grapes-3DVAR schemes are able to assimilate the Doppler-radar estimated rainfall and retrieved winds, but differences in simulation results are very large, with Barnes-3DVAR＇s simulation much better than Grapes-3DVAR＇s. （3） Under Grapes- 3DVAR scheme, the simulation of 24-h rainfall is improved obviously when assimilating the Doppler-radar estimated precipitation into the model in compared with the control experiment; but it becomes a little worse when assimilating the Doppler-radar retrieved winds into the model, and it becomes worse obviously when assimilating the Doppler-radar estimated precipitation as well as retrieved winds into the model. However, the simulation is different under Barnes-3DVAR scheme. The simulation is improved to a certain degree no matter assimilating the estimated precipitation or retrieved winds, or both of them. The result is the best when assimilating both of them into the

关 键 词：Doppler-radar estimated precipitation retrieved winds ASSIMILATION rainfall forecast 

分 类 号：P412.25[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]