安徽省极端降水事件的判别分析  

Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Event in Anhui

作　　者：刘忠平[1] 马晓群[2] 胡雯[2] 曹琦萍[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学系,江苏南京210093 [2]安徽省气象局,安徽合肥230061

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2007年第9期2631-2632,2638,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：利用安徽省68个台站近40年的日降水资料,运用累积频率法判别分析基于日资料的极端降水事件,给出了安徽省各台站降水极端事件的阈值。着重分析了阈值的空间分布,出现最大和最小阈值站点的降水时间序列特征及夏季暴雨多发地带的区域极端降水的特征。同时运用一元线性回归和滑动平均分析了暴雨多发地带的区域降水变化趋势。With the cumulative frequency method the thresholds of extreme precipitation event was defined according to daily precipitation data of 68 stations in Anhui province during last 40 years. The analysis of the spatial distribution of thresholds, the characteristics of extreme precipitation time series of maximum and minimum threshold station and the regional extreme precipitation characteristics of heavy rain zones in summer was focused on. At the same time, with CCM3 global spectrum model the summer extreme precipitation in Anhui province was sirnttlated to analyze its trend.

关 键 词：极端降水事件 累积频率法 安徽省 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]