山东冬季气温变化的气候特征和分型  

CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS AND PATTERNS ON WINTER TEMPERATURE IN SHANDONG

作　　者：于群[1] 王新[1] 牟勤[1] 邹玉玲[1] 王方[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东省气象科学研究所,山东济南250031

出　　处：《山东农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第1期21-27,共7页Journal of Shandong Agricultural University：Natural Science Edition

摘　　要：选用山东省80个代表站1961～2005年12、1、2月平均气温资料,利用统计学方法,探讨冬季气温的分布类型和变化特征。结果显示,气温变化存在3种基本空间分布类型,其中总体一致性暖(冷)型是主要分布类型,概率高于80%,其中严重/异常偏暖年份都发生在20世纪90年代以后,严重/异常偏冷年份则发生在80年代中期之前。另外两种类型东暖(冷)西暖(冷)型、南暖(冷)北暖(冷)型也偶有出现,但未达到异常标准。冬季及各月标准化气温第1主成分年际变化线性增温趋势显著,在不同年代存在2～6a的准周期变化。Based on the monthly air temperature data from eighty meteoroglcal stauons in Shnandong Province from Dec to Feb during 1961 ～ 2005 and by statistic analysis, the yearly elemental distribution patterns and changing trends of the primary model were analyzed. The results show that there are 3 patterns in the normalized winter temperature and the concurrently warmer or colder type all over the province is the primary pattern, the probability reaches over 80%. The other patterns that the east is warmer（colder） and the west is colder（wanner） or the north is warmer（colder） and the north is colder（warmer） occur in some year , however the degree doesn＇ t reach abnormity standard by WMO. There are remarkable increasing trends in the variations of the first principal component of normalized winter months temperature, and meanwhile there are 2 ～ 6a oscillation periods in different times.

关 键 词：山东省 冬季气温 主成分分析 分布类型 

分 类 号：TU392[建筑科学—结构工程]