气候波动和土地覆盖变化下的黄河源区水资源预测  

Runoff Estimation Under Climate and Land Cover Change in Yellow River Source Region

作　　者：车骞[1] 王根绪[1] 孔福广[2] 陈玲[1] 姜秀娜[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]黄河水利委员会上游水文水资源局,甘肃兰州730030

出　　处：《水文》2007年第2期11-15,共5页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(30270255)

摘　　要：以黄河源区为研究对象,以分布式水文模型SWAT为研究工具,建立不同气候波动和土地覆盖变化情景,模拟和预测未来水资源的变化。针对黄河源区特殊的下垫面条件,着重冰雪和冻土的水文过程调试,对模拟结果的评价显示,SWAT模型能够较好地模拟黄河源区的水资源变化。不同情景下演算得出的水资源量数据可信,具有一定的实用意义,随着认识的深入和模型结构以及参数的优化,模型在寒区水资源研究和管理中会发挥更大作用。Taking Yellow River Source Region as a study area, this paper simulated and estimated the runoff processes under the different climate and land cover change scenarios using distributed hydrnlogical model--SWAT. Owing to the particular convergence condition in YRSR, the model calibration intensified the parameters on snowmeh and soil temperature. The evaluation of the resuits showed that SWAT simulated the hydrological process comparatively well. The runoff estimting results under different scenarios are believable and useful in practice to some extent and SWAT will play a more important role in the cold region water resources research and management with more edfining the structure and parameters of the model.

关 键 词：SWAT 气候波动 土地覆盖 黄河源区水资源 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]