中国城市集聚与扩散的转换规模及最优规模研究  

The Research on the Transformational Size and the Optimum Size of the Urban Agglomeration and Dispersion in China

作　　者：李秀敏[1] 刘冰[1] 黄雄[2] 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学经济学院,吉林长春130117 [2]东北师范大学城市与环境科学学院,吉林长春130024

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2007年第2期76-82,87,共8页Urban Development Studies

摘　　要：以我国211个主要地级及地级以上城市为研究对象,其中包括除拉萨以外的30个省会城市、5个计划单列城市以及176个地级市。收集了1989-2003年及2000-2005年各城市的连续时间序列数据,构建了城市集聚与扩散的Panel-data模型,并运用该模型分别估算了各城市的相对规模收益和相对外部成本,然后通过收益与成本的对比分析,判断城市发展所处的阶段,找出城市以集聚为主向以扩散为主转换的城市规模。研究发现:目前,除上海市处于扩散阶段外,我国其它城市都处于以集聚为主的发展阶段,且在这些城市中,绝大部分城市的规模收益的增长速度要快于其外部成本。This paper regards the 211 main cities as research samples, including 30 provincial capitals except for Lasa City, 5 cities of planning individually and 176 prefectural metropolises in China, and sets up panel-data models of urban agglomeration and dispersion based on the successive time-series data from the year 1989 to 2003 and 2000 to 2005, to estimate relative retums to scale and extemal cost of each city respectively,then judges the phases of the cities development and seeks the city size that each city transforms from agglomeration as core to dispersion as core through comparing the relative returns to scale and external cost of each city. It is found by study that the other cities are in the phases of agglomeration except Shanghai, and in these cities, the growth of retums to scale in the majority of cities is faster than that of extemal cost.

关 键 词：规模收益 外部成本 面板数据模型 

分 类 号：F291[经济管理—国民经济]