西北地区短临观测前兆标志体系研究  

Research on Precursory Indication System of Short-Impending Observation in Northwest China

作　　者：王振亚 李佐唐 孙景芳 

机构地区：[1]兰州地震研究所

出　　处：《四川地震》1997年第1期24-39,共16页Earthquake Research in Sichuan

基　　金：国家地震局八五攻关课题!85-04-02-04

摘　　要：对甘、宁、青三省区70个台站，121个测项自正式观测以来的全部资料进行了整个时间域的处理分析，结果表明单测项短临异常对应地震的条件概率（信度）大多数是比较低的，只有采用适当的综合预报方法才能有效地提高预报水平。通过深入研究提出了三种综合分析预报方法，即“前兆信息量直接计算法”，“多因子综合相关分析法”及“信息合成法”，其中以“前兆信息量直接计算法”普适性、可操作性更好一些。The result of whole-time-domain processing and analysis of all the data from 70 stations and 121 sets of observation data in Gansu-Ningxia-Qinghai area shows that most of the conditional probabilities (credibilities) of monomial short - impending anomaly correspondent earthquake are comparatively low. The level of prediction can be only improved by using proper comprehensive prediction methods. Three kinds of comprehensive analysis and prediction methods are given after research. They are 'method of directly calculating precursory information content', 'multi-factor comprehensive correspondence analysis method'and 'information synthesis method'. Among them, the first one is better for practical use.

关 键 词：前兆信息 信息合成 综合判断 地震前兆 地震预报 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]