少子老龄化下的中国养老保险财务平衡分析  

The Analysis of Chinese Financing Balance of Social Security Pressed By Below-replacement Fertility and Population Aging

作　　者：王玉霞[1] 陈茗[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学公共事务学院人口研究所,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《市场与人口分析》2006年第6期12-17,共6页Market & Demographic Analysis

摘　　要：少子老龄化对养老保险财务平衡的影响须放在人口、劳力力市场、养老保险体系和经济环境四个系统相互作用的框架下来考察。在此框架下从当期平衡和时期平衡的角度预测2005-2050年的财务平衡可以得出:老龄化通过对城市化率、劳动参与率、失业率的影响使赡养率提高,从而改变了缴费率和积累率,而较之降低替代率而言,提高退休年龄可更有效地缓解老龄化带来的压力。The influence of financing balance of the social security pressed by below-replacement fertility and population aging should be considered on the foundation of four systems： population,la- bor market,social security and economic environment. From the forecast of financing balance by means of one-period and periods balance from 2005 to 2050 years we can see that, population aging increases the support rate through urbanization rate, labor participation rate, unemployment rate, then changes hand-in rate and accumulating rate. Compared to decreasing the substitute rate, heightening the retirement age is a much more effective way to relief the pressure.

关 键 词：少子化 老龄化 养老保险体系 财务平衡 

分 类 号：F840.67[经济管理—保险]