气候变化及其未来情景  

Climate Change and Its Scenarios in the Future

作　　者：曹鸿兴[1] 李德平[2] 虞海燕[2] 谢庄[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]北京市气象局,北京100089

出　　处：《新疆气象》2006年第5期1-4,共4页Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology

基　　金：北京自然科学基金(8042012);国家自然科学基金(40375025)

摘　　要：论述了百余年来气候变化的事实及对未来情景的预估。1861年以来,全球平均温度升高了0.6±0.2℃。20世纪90年代是20世纪最暖的10a。近百年来,降水分布也发生了变化,大陆地区尤其是中高纬地区降水增加,非洲等一些地区降水减少。气候模式模拟表明:全球平均地表气温到2100年时将比1990年上升1.4￣5.8℃。21世纪全球平均降水将会增加,但大部分年平均降水增加的区域很可能同时出现大的年际变化。全球平均海平面到2100年时将比1990年上升0.09￣0.88m。北半球雪盖和海冰范围将进一步缩小。未来,若干极端事件发生的频率会增加。The observed climate change in the past more than 100 yr and its projections in the future are depicted. The global average temperature has increased 0.6±0.2℃ since 1861, the 1990s is the wannest decade in the 20 century. The precipitation also changed in the last 100 yr; the precipitation over continents, particularly, in middle-high latitudes, increased, but decreased over some regions, such as in Africa. Simulations by climate models show： the increment of the global average surface temperature between in 2100 and 1990 is 1.4-5.8℃ ;The global average precipitation in the 21 century will increased, but the most regions where the yearly average precipitation increases will appear big interannual variation. The global average sea level will rise 0.09-0.88m in 2100 relative to 1990.The ice and snow canopy and sea ice extent will contract. The occurrence frequencies of some meteorological extremes will increase in the future.

关 键 词：气候变化 气候预估 全球增暖 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]