投资需求、利率机制与我国财政政策的有效性  

Investment Demand,Interest Rate Mechanism and Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in China

作　　者：李永友[1] 周达军[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学理论经济学博士后流动站 [2]浙江海洋学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2007年第5期12-21,共10页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

摘　　要：本文在传统凯恩斯模型和新古典总供需模型的基础上构建了一个可计量的财政政策利率效应分析模型,并利用2LS方法对模型进行了估计,得出几点结论:一是我国财政政策对真实利率的影响在统计上并不显著;二是财政政策与真实利率之间无关性的估计结果并没有受财政赤字弥补方式和经济运行机制变化的影响;三是相对于财政政策,我国货币政策对真实利率的影响更显著,货币政策的相机变化通过利率机制对财政政策的有效性产生了一定的抵消作用,但程度有限。上述结论意味着,我国财政政策通过利率机制对私人部门投资需求产生的挤出效应是相当有限的。Based on traditional Keynes＇ model and new classical aggregate supply and demand model, this paper constructs a gaugeable models of effects of fiscal policy on interest rate and utilizes 2LS method to estimate the model. It concludes：①The effects of fiscal policy on real interest rate is not significant in China;②Independence between fiscal policy and real interest rate does not change because the financial way of fiscal deficit and mechanism of economic movement change; ③ In contrast to fiscal policy, the impact of monetary policy on real interest rate is more significant , discretionary monetary policy has a negative effect on the efficacy of fiscal policy by interest rate mechanism, but which intensity is limited. The conclusion above means the crowding- out effects of fiscal policy on investment demand of private sector is very limited by interest rate mechanism in China, as regards interest rate effect , which further means fiscal policy in China is effective.

关 键 词：投资需求 利率效应 财政政策 

分 类 号：F810[经济管理—财政学]