东亚最适度通货区的经济可行性研究——一个经济冲击对称性的视角  

Research on the Feasibility of Creating an Optimum Currency Area in East Asia:Symmetry of Shocking Aspects Approach

作　　者：崔晓燕[1] 王少平[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《金融研究》2007年第01A期122-137,共16页Journal of Financial Research

摘　　要：本文建立了一个四变量的结构VAR模型,以欧盟国家为参照标准,分别从经济冲击的对称性、经济冲击的规模以及实际有效汇率对潜在冲击的响应模式三个方面,考察了东亚组建最适度通货区的可行性。实证研究发现,目前东亚并不满足建立全面的最适度通货区的条件,但是分别在东南亚和东北亚,即印度尼西亚、新加坡和泰国组建子通货区,中国和香港组建另一个子通货区是可行的。This paper empirically investigates the feasibility of creating an optimum currency area in East Asia with EU adopted as benchmarks. Relying on a four- variable structural VAR model, the authors analyze the symmetry of shocks, the size of shocks and the response of real effective exchange rate to these shocks. The analysis suggests that it doesn＇t satisfy the shocking criterion to create an optimum currency area in the whole region presently. However it is ideal to create smaller sub - group in South - east Asia and North - east Asia initially, that is to say, it is appropriate to create an optimum currency area among Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand, and it also be feasible between China and Hong Kong.

关 键 词：四变量结构VAR模型 对称 最适度通货区 

分 类 号：F823[经济管理—财政学] F224