改进的灰色预测模型在城市年需水量预测中的应用  

Application of modified grey forecast model to the predication of urban yearly water requirements

作　　者：杨鹏[1] 陈金锥 

机构地区：[1]福州大学基建办,福建福州350001 [2]福州市规划设计研究院,福建福州350003

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2007年第2期80-82,共3页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

摘　　要：应用灰色系统理论建立了某城市年需水量的灰色GM(1,1)模型。在分析灰色预测模型建模思路及建模前提的基础上,应采用改进的灰色预测模型进行该市年需水量预测。结果表明:改进灰色预测模型与灰色GM(1,1)模型相比,平均相对误差以及原点误差均较小,适用性范围更广,可用于城市的年用水量预测。Applied the grey system theory has established the grey model for the predication of a city yearly water requirements. Based on the analysis of thought for the grey forecast model and the conditions, using the modifed grey forecast to predicat the city＇s yearly water requirements, the results have shown that the modified grey forecast model compared with the grey model GM（1,1）, the average relative error and the origin error were total rather small, the application range will be wide. It can be used in predication of city＇s yearly water requirements.

关 键 词：城市年需水量 改进的灰色预测模型 一次累加 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]