基于自助法的水文频率区间估计  

Determination of confidence intervals for frequency analysis by using Bootstrap

作　　者：刘攀[1] 郭生练[1] 方彬[1] 郭富强[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2007年第2期55-59,64,共6页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:50609017);湖北省自然科学基金资助项目(编号:2006ABA229)

摘　　要：介绍了采用自助法估计水文频率区间的原理与方法,对经验分位数自助法、纠偏自助法、正态分布近似自助法、学生分布近似自助法等进行了简要的描述,并将纠偏加速自助法引入到水文频率区间估计中.通过统计试验,将自助法与水文频率分析区间估计的常用方法,包括保证修正值系数B方法、Stedinger方法等进行比较研究.试验结果表明:在估计水文频率的上界值时,纠偏加速自助法效率最高,为水文频率区间估计提供了新的思路.This paper mainly focuses on estimating the confidence intervals for frequency analysis by using Bootstrap. Five different Bootstraps, including the empirical frequency, the test-inversion Bootstrap, the normal distribution Bootstrap, the student distribution Bootstrap and the bias-correction acceleration Bootstrap are used to analyze the confidence intervals. Additionally, three widely used methods are also compared with the above-mentioned Bootstraps. Based upon a Monte Carlo experiment, it is found that the bias-correction acceleration Bootstrap performs best among these confidence intervals estimation models. With the case study on the annual maximum discharges of Hepu reservoir, it is indicated that the Bootstrap is rational in the confidence intervals estimation.

关 键 词：频率分析 区间估计 自助法 统计试验 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]