地震活动性参数全时空扫描动态寻优预报模型  

Prediction model based on the spatial-temporal scanning of seismic parameters

作　　者：曹井泉[1] 朝伦巴根[1] 孙加林[2] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古农业大学,呼和浩特010018 [2]内蒙古自治区地震局,呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《国际地震动态》2007年第4期1-7,共7页Recent Developments in World Seismology

摘　　要：选取10种物理意义清楚、独立性较好的地震活动性参数,以最大限度地提高预报效能为目标,采用全时空扫描方法建立动态寻优预报模型。研究表明,地震活动性参数动态寻优预报模型,在空间上,客观地反映了区域构造活动的差异性;在时间上,完整地反映了区域地震活动的涨落;可以有效地剔除背景干扰,提高地震异常识别率,避免预报的随机性和盲目性。10 seismic activity parameters, which is independent of each other with clear physical meaning are selected in the paper. In order to search a prediction model, the spatial-temporal scanning method for selected seismic parameters has been used. The results show that the prediction model established based on the scanning approach reflects the tectonic differences of each region objectively in space, and reflects the seismic fluctuation in time completely also. It can improve the capability of identifying the seismic abnormal phenomena

关 键 词：地震活动 全时空扫描 动态寻优 参数 预报模型 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]