基于马尔柯夫模型的太谷县城乡结合部土地利用变化预测  

The Forecast of the Changes of Land Use in the Urban-rural Crisscrossed Area of Taigu Based on Markov Chain Model

作　　者：荆颖蔷[1] 吕亮卿[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西农业大学资源环境学院,山西太谷030801

出　　处：《山西农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第2期171-174,共4页Journal of Shanxi Agricultural University(Natural Science Edition)

摘　　要：为了区域有限土地的合理利用，根据1996-2005年太谷县城乡结合部各类土地利用数据以及各年土地类型转移数据得到年均转移概率，建立了马尔柯夫预测模型，对2006～2010年的土地利用变化趋势进行模拟预测。结果显示：在剔除政策因素影响的前提下，马尔柯夫模型对研究区土地利用变化的预测基本符合太谷县城乡结合部的实际情况，对未来土地合理利用有积极的指导意义。In order to make land use reasonable, we should know the tendency and special feature of it. In this paper Markov chain model is used to forecast the changes of land use in the urban-rural crisscrossed area of Shanxi Taigu, it indicates that the areas of cultivated land, and forest land and bare land is decreasing, and which of land for settlement, traffic and garden is decreasing. With these changes we find the main reasons for the changes, and then raise some suggestion correspondingly.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 马尔柯夫模型 城乡结合部 

分 类 号：F301.3[经济管理—产业经济]