城际快速轨道交通客流预测方法研究  

Study on Passenger Flow Forecasting Methods for Intercity Fast Rail Transit

作　　者：钟绍林[1] 

机构地区：[1]铁道第四勘察设计院线站处,湖北武汉430063

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2007年第5期71-74,共4页Railway Transport and Economy

摘　　要：针对城际快速交通地区综合路网发达,交通方式间换乘便捷,人口出行多方式、多路径的特点,提出包括基于综合路权、换乘阻抗,以及动态多路径概率分配思想的多方式、多路径客流方式划分与配流组合预测模型,对城际快速轨道交通客流进行预测,并通过对穗莞深城际快速轨道交通的客流预测,验证了模型的科学性和有效性。Targeting the characteristics of intercity rapid rail transit system, such as the powerful integrated transport network, convenient transfer between different modes and diversified mode choices, the essay puts forward a combinatorial forecasting model for the passenger flow classification and distribution which takes the comprehensive rights-of-Way, transferring barrier and dynamic multi-route probability assignment concepts into account to forecast the passenger flow of intercity rapid rail transit. MeanWhile, the application of such model on the Guangzhou-Dongguan-Shenzhen intercity rail trans t has verified the model＇s scientificity and effect.

关 键 词：客流预测 城际快速轨道交通 客流调查 模型 

分 类 号：U293.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]