SRES B2情景下中国区域最高、最低气温及日较差变化分布特征初步分析  

A preliminary analysis of distribution characteristics of maximum and minimum temperature and diurnal temperature range changes over China under SRES B2 scenario

作　　者：张勇[1] 许吟隆[2] 董文杰[3] 曹丽娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室,北京100029 [2]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081 [3]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《地球物理学报》2007年第3期714-723,共10页Chinese Journal of Geophysics

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关课题(2004BA611B02);中英气候变化双边合作研究项目资助

摘　　要：本文利用Hadley气候预测与研究中心的区域气候模式系统PRECIS进行中国区域气候基准时段（1961-1990年）和SRESB2情景下2071—2100年（2080s）最高、最低气温及日较差变化响应的分析．气候基准时段的模拟结果与观测资料的对比分析表明：PRECIS具有对中国区域最高、最低气温及日较差的模拟能力，能够模拟出中国区域最高、最低气温及日较差的局地分布特征．对SRESB2情景下相对于气候基准时段的最高、最低气温及日较差变化响应分析表明：中国区域2080s时段年、冬季和夏季平均最高、最低气温变化均呈一致增加的趋势，北方地区增温幅度普遍大于南方地区．夏季东北地区极端高温事件发生的频率将会增加，而冬季华北地区极端冷害事件发生频率将会减少．未来中国区域年平均日较差将出现北方地区减小而南方地区增加的趋势．冬季长江中下游以南地区日较差呈增加趋势，而夏季华东地区、西北地区及内蒙古中部日较差将呈减小趋势，其中在青藏高原北部地区存在一个较强的低值中心．In this paper, the PRECIS, a regional climate model system developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, is employed to simulate the baseline （1961 - 1990） and future 2071 - 2100 （2080s） maximum and minimum temperature and diurnal temperature range change responses under SRES B2 scenario over China. A comparison of the simulated baseline results with observations shows that PRECIS can well simulate the local distribution characteristics of maximum and minimum temperature and diurnal temperature range over China. Analyses of the simulated results in the 2080s under SRES B2 scenario relative to the baseline show that there would be an overall increasing trend in the maximum and minimum temperatures in annual, winter and summer over China and the warming amplitude in the north of China is projected to be greater than in the south. There would be an increasing trend of extreme hot temperature occurrence in summer in Northeast China and a decreasing trend of extreme cold disaster occurrence in winter in North China. The changes in the annual diurnal temperature range in the 2080s under SRES B2 scenario relative to the baseline are projected to present a decreasing trend in the north of China and an increasing trend in the south of China. In winter there would be an increasing trend of diurnal temperature range in the southern region of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, while a decreasing trend in East China, Northwest China and the middle of Inner Mongolia. In particular, a stronger low value center is projected to exist in the north of the Tibetan Plateau.

关 键 词：PRECIS 最高气温 最低气温 日较差 SRES 132情景 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]