基于用地和交通特征的停车需求预测模型  

Forecast model of parking demand based on land function and traffic characteristics

作　　者：王丰元[1] 邹旭东[1] 阎岩[1] 李洪民[1] 张洪海[1] 

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学汽车与交通学院,山东青岛266033

出　　处：《交通运输工程学报》2007年第2期84-88,共5页Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering

基　　金：建设部科技计划项目(05-K6-1)

摘　　要：为了解决城市停车难问题,对停车需求进行合理预测,考虑目前日益紧张的土地资源和快速增长的交通流量,分析了用地与交通影响预测模型建立的基本原理,采用用地特征函数描述了土地使用性质与停车生成率之间的关系,采用交通影响函数分析了路网流量增长率和停车率对停车需求的影响,在此基础上建立了停车需求预测模型。利用开发的软件系统,根据典型区域的土地资源规划和道路交通调查数据,进行了城市停车需求预测。预测结果表明:随着时间的变化,在各种因素影响下,停车需求近5 a增长较缓慢,而在随后的5 a中停车需求快速增长,且日停车需求量的增长速度明显高于高峰小时的增长速度。In order to solve urban parking difficulty and reasonably forecast urban parking demand, the limitation of land resource and the increase of traffic flow were considered, the principle of parking ＂ demand forecast model with land function and traffic effect was analysed, the relation of land use property and dynamic parking generation rate was depicted by land use character function, and the influences of the increase rate of traffic flow and parking rate on parking demand were analyzed by traffic influence function. A parking demand forecast model was constructed, the algorithm and the program of the model were developed, and the parking demand of a typical region was forecasted based on its land planning data and practical road traffic flow data. Forecast result shows that parking demand increases slowly in recent 5 a and quickly in following 5 a, the increase speed of everyday parking demand is higher than that of rush hour. 5 tabs, 10 refs.

关 键 词：交通工程 停车需求 土地利用特征 交通特征 预测模型 

分 类 号：U491.14[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]