杰氏风暴潮预报方法在珠海及粤西海域的应用  

Application of the Jelesnianski storm surge forecast methods in Zhuhai and Western Guangdong coastal areas

作　　者：魏晓宇[1] 窦金来[2] 黄根华[2] 周求赞[2] 陈强[1] 王欣睿[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学环境科学与工程学院,山东青岛266003 [2]国家海洋局南海分局珠海海洋环境监测中心站,广东珠海519015

出　　处：《台湾海峡》2007年第2期197-203,共7页Journal of Oceanography In Taiwan Strait

基　　金：国家海洋局南海分局海洋科学技术局长基金资助项目(0560)

摘　　要：本文通过杰氏风暴潮预报方法对历史上给珠海和粤西海域造成较大影响的台风增水事件进行后报试验,并通过统计分析方法对原有的预报公式进行订正,总结出适合珠海及粤西海域的风暴潮预报公式.利用5a的时间对珠海及粤西海域的台风增水进行试报,结果表明预报准确率分别达95.0%和87.6%,尤其对一些增水较大、影响较严重的台风增水预报相对更加准确,预报准确率均达90.0%以上.这说明订正后的公式对珠海及粤西海域的风暴潮预报能得到较好的预报效果.We systematically studys the surge caused by the storms which heavily impacted Zhuhai and Western Guangdong costal areas in history by Jelesnianski forecast methods and make some revision to the original formula by statistical analysis methods. After five years＇experiments on the surge forecast in Zhuhai and Western Guangdong coastal areas by the revised fomular, our resuh shows that the average forecast accuracy rate is 95.0% and 87.6% respectively. Particulaly, it is relatively more accurate when we forecast the storm surge caused by more stonger typhoons, the forecast accuracy rate is all over 90.0%. Forecast result indicates the revised formula is basically applicable to Zhuhai and Western Guangdong coastal areas.

关 键 词：风暴潮 预报方法 台风增水 珠海 粤西海域 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学]