货物送达时间的概率分析  

The probabilistic analysis of freight arrival time

作　　者：李玮[1] 孙晚华[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《交通科技与经济》2007年第3期104-106,共3页Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications

摘　　要：通过分析货物运输过程,并以建立车流在技术站中有调中转时间分布函数为例,以此假定其他环节的作业时间分布函数,进而得到送达时间的分布函数。根据《铁路货物运输规程》规定的货物运到期限求出可以实现的概率,按一定比例把运到期限分配到各个环节上,进一步计算出各个环节实现的概率,并从提高各个作业环节的保障率措施来提高整个运到期限的保障率。The paper analyses freight transportation process and takes the distribution function of transfer time with resorting in the technique station as an example, then gives that other distribution functions of each link working times according to it. Moreover, the distribution function of arrival time can be obtained. The probability of freight transit period based on regulations relating to railway goods report can be also counted, and it can be assigned to each link working by definite ratios to get the probability of each link working. Therefore, we raise the probability of the each link working to improve the guarantee probability of the freight transit period.

关 键 词：送达时间 有调中转时间 途中运行时间 货物运到期限 

分 类 号：U294.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]