基于预测克立格方法的马尾松毛虫空间发生量预报  

Forecast of the spatial population density of Dendrolimus punctatus based on forecast kriging

作　　者：陈绘画 崔相富 张建薇 

机构地区：[1]仙居县林业局,浙江仙居317300

出　　处：《中国森林病虫》2007年第3期5-7,共3页Forest Pest and Disease

摘　　要：根据1983年9月至1989年9月马尾松毛虫的虫情调查资料,用预测克立格方法研究全县各调查点的马尾松毛虫有虫面积、虫口密度的时空变化规律,建立马尾松毛虫有虫面积、虫口密度的空间预报模型。结果表明:用该方法预报全县马尾松毛虫空间发生量具有很好的预报效果,对未参与建模的1989年3代的虫口密度、有虫面积的预报准确率均为100%。The infested area and spatial variation regularity of Dendrolirnus punctatus population density at all the survey spots in Xianju County were studied with forecast kriging based on the data of survey for Dendrolirnus punctatus between September 1983 and September 1989 and the spatial forecast model of the infested area and population density of the pest was established. The result showed that it was effective and the forecast accuracy was 100 %.

关 键 词：马尾松毛虫 空间发生量 预测克立格方法 

分 类 号：S763.305[农业科学—森林保护学]