地震大形势预测方法的预测效能与应用研究  

Evaluation on earthquake tendency prediction method and its application

作　　者：李志雄[1] 陶本藻[1] 吴婷[2] 路鹏[3] 李圣强[2] 江在森[2] 杨林章[2] 泽仁志玛[2] 赵晓燕[3] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学测绘学院,湖北武汉430079 [2]中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京100036 [3]防灾科技学院,河北燕郊065201

出　　处：《地震》2007年第2期17-29,共13页Earthquake

基　　金：地震科学联合基金项目(A07007)

摘　　要：采用地震非均匀度（GL值）预测方法，在震例回朔性检验研究、室内岩石破裂实验及GPS观测结果等三种途径对该方法预测效能进行评价研究的基础上，开展对中国大陆未来1～3年强地震活动主体地区和危险性预测工作。效能评价结果表明，地震非均匀度（GL值）可以较好地刻画岩石失稳前因破裂成核导致的声发射活动在时间分布上的状态变化，这种状态变化可能与强地震孕育进入末期、强地震即将发生有关。地震非均匀度时空扫描结果表明，未来1～3年中国大陆强地震活动主体地区将集中在青藏块体中北部及新疆南天山地区，上述区域在未来一个时期发生多次6．5级乃至7级以上地震的可能性较大。Based on the earthquake retrospective testing, the experiment of rock rupture and the results of GPS observation, the prediction efficiency of the method and the potentially risk areas of strong earthquakes in Chinars mainland in next 1-3 years are studied in this paper by means of the Seismic Inhomogeneous Degree （GL value）. The result of efficiency evaluation proved that GL value can well depict the state changes of acoustic emission activity with time, which resulted from the rupture nucleation before rocks becoming instable. And the changes may be associated with the strong earthquake preparation. The space-time scanning results of GL value show that the high risk area of strong earthquakes in Chinars mainland in the next 1-3 years is mainly concentrated in the northern part of Tibetan plateau and the Southern TianShan range region in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, where the earthquakes with magnitude 6.5, even greeter than 7 will take place with greater probability.

关 键 词：地震大形势 方法评价 预测研究 地震非均匀度 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]