基于国际收支的宏观经济景气预警研究  

A Study of the Fore-Warn of Macroeconomic Boom Based on Balanced Payments

作　　者：赵振全[1] 刘柏[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心暨商学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《吉林大学社会科学学报》2007年第3期99-105,共7页Jilin University Journal Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：吉林大学"985工程"经济分析与预测哲学社会科学创新基地项目(2004);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(05JJD790005);国家社会科学基金项目(05BJY100);国家自然科学基金项目(70573040)

摘　　要：中国经济体系存在诱发危机的因素是不争的事实,防范诸如此类的风险,除了加强内部监管和完善自身的市场机制外,还要关注来自外部的冲击。因此需要建立来自国际收支等相关项目的预警指标,并确定其反应机制,以便于更好地把握宏观经济走势,起到防患于未然的作用。我们构造了体现经济波动的经济增长压力指数,并利用离散选择模型Probit及反应概率图等经济计量方法,基于国际收支对国内宏观经济扩张和收缩的景气状况进行了预警,得出了外汇储备增长率、外商直接投资增长率和贸易总额增长率可以有效地预示宏观经济运行状态的结论。It is an undeniable fact that there are crisis inducing factors in China＇ s economic system. To avoid such risks, external shocks should be paid attention to in addition to the argument of internal supervise and improvement of market mechanism. Therefore, to control macroeconomic trend, it is important to establish early warning indicators on the basis of balance of payment items in order to take preventive measures. This article constructs economic growth pressure indicator reflecting economic fluctuation. Through discrete choice and response probability graph, this article makes early warning on domestic macroeconomic expansion and contraction, and draws conclusions that foreign exchange reserve rate, foreign direct investment growth rate and total trade growth rate effectively forebode macroeconomic process.

关 键 词：国际收支 宏观经济景气 景气预警 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F224