我国能源发展的风险影响因素与预警系统分析  

Analysis on Risk Influences of Energy Development and Pre-warning System in Our Country

作　　者：谭忠富[1] 陈广娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电力能源经济研究所,北京102206

出　　处：《中国能源》2007年第5期40-44,共5页Energy of China

基　　金：国家教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划";北京哲学社会科学规划项目(06BaJG102)

摘　　要：本文从3个角度分析了我国能源发展中存在的风险;以能源资源储量、能源生产效率、可再生能源开发、政治能源外交、国际能源交易等为主的能源供给角度;以经济增长方式、能源利用效率、节能政策与节能设备等为主的能源利用角度;以能源环境污染、清洁替代能源等为主的环境保护角度。在此基础上,讨论了以能源供需平衡和价格波动、单位产值能耗、能源需求增长速度等为指标的预警系统构建思路。The risks of energy development are analyzed from three aspects,which are energy supply, including energy resource reserves,energy production efficiency,renewable energy development,energy diplomacy and international energy trade;energy use,including economic growth mode,energy use efficiency, energy saving facilities and energy efficiency policy;environment protect,including environmental pollution and clean energy substituting.Based on this,a pre-warning system is discussed,whose indexes are energy balance between supply and demand,energy consumption of unit production valve and growth rate of energy demand.

关 键 词：能源风险 能源利用效率 能源预警系统 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] F224