连云港市城市空气质量预报方法研究  

THE RESEARCH OF ANALYSIS AND PREDICATION OF AIR QUALITY IN LIANYUNGANG CITY

作　　者：姜有山[1] 陈飞[2] 班欣 李军 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学系,南京210044 [2]连云港市气象局,连云港222006 [3]连云港市环境保护局,连云港222001

出　　处：《气象科学》2007年第2期220-225,共6页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：江苏省科技厅社会发展类科研基金(编号:BL2000125)"紫菜养殖的气象条件研究"资助

摘　　要：本文利用高空大气探测资料和有限区细网格模式的数值预报产品,分别建立统计预报和数值预报等适合连云港市城市空气质量预报业务发展所需要的客观预报方法,最终利用动态分权法,综合决策集成连云港市城市空气质量预报。结果表明:动态分权法能够有效地提高空气质量的预报准确率。By using upper air data and limited area fine gridding numeric predication production,we established statistic forecast and numeric forecast methods respectively which adapted to the demands of business development of city＇s air quality forecast,and finally using dynamic disparting weigh method, we synthesized and integrated the air quality forecast method of Lianyungang city. The result indicated that dynamic disparting weigh method could increase the air quality forecast accuracy ratio effectively.

关 键 词：空气质量 分析 预报 研究 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]