四川盆地夏旱多因素综合评估方法探讨  

Study of multi-factors assessment method for summer droughts in Sichuan basin

作　　者：刘庆[1] 毛军需[2] 彭国照[3] 

机构地区：[1]四川省气候中心,四川成都610071 [2]河南科技大学,河南洛阳471003 [3]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,四川成都610071

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2007年第3期82-85,共4页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：四川省气象局重大项目"四川省生态气象监测服务系统建设研究"

摘　　要：通过对四川盆地夏旱定量评估方法的探索,分析影响干旱程度的主要气象因子,根据它们之间的关系,建立了多因子综合影响的单站和区域干旱定量评估模式,开发了干旱评估业务系统。利用新评估模式建立了单站和区域夏旱程度评估序列,通过新旧评估结果的对比分析,发现新干旱指数与以前评估指数存在较大差异。由于新方法综合考虑了旱期多气候因子对评估影响的结果,新评估结果更符合客观实际,在业务中应用收到良好的效果。Droughts is a complex natural phenomenon which affected by a series of climate factors. In order to represent the drought index more truly, this paper develop a multi-factors evaluation model for single station and the total region, which based on the researches of quantitative evaluation methods for summer droughts in Sichuan Basin and analysis of main climate factors influencing the assessment drought index instead of the method of counting the length of the drought period. Also the lists of assessment summer droughts index for the single station and the total region are set up. As a result, this new one synthesizing the climate factors, which contain temperature, sunlight, humidity, etc. have great differences with the old index. At the same time, we find that the evaluation result of new model is more coincident with the observations, and can be applied to climate operation well.

关 键 词：四川盆地 夏旱 气候多因子 综合评估模式 

分 类 号：S165.25[农业科学—农业气象学]