大连沿海冬季表层低水温的趋势预报方法研究  

The Study on the Low Water Temperature Tendency Prediction Method of Dalian Winter Coastal Surface Layer

作　　者：袁开朗 崔树勋[1] 孙玉凤 

机构地区：[1]大连市海洋气象科研所

出　　处：《大连水产学院学报》1997年第1期21-26,共6页Journal of Dalian Fisheries University

摘　　要：运用谱分析方法研究了大连沿海冬季表层水温自身变化规律以及它同厄尔尼诺现象间的相互关系，在此基础上提出了“厄尔尼诺指数曲线积分法”。用它对大连沿海冬季表层最低水温作了趋势预报。通过回报和预报的检验。On the basis of studying of regularity of changes of Dalian winter coastal surface layer water temperature itself and its relations with the EI nino phenomenon by means of the spectral analysis, the authors put forward an EI nino index curve integration method, and by using it they made a tendency prediction on Dalian winter coastal surface layer water temperature. It was proved to have higher accuracy through re prediction and prediction.

关 键 词：谱分析 厄尔尼诺现象 趋势预报 水温 

分 类 号：P731.1[天文地球—海洋科学]