计算机仿真技术在市场风险分析中的应用  

Application of Computer Simulation Technology on Market Risk Analysis

作　　者：卞艺杰[1] 韩永胜[1] 卢晶晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,南京210098

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2007年第11期2599-2603,共5页Science Technology and Engineering

摘　　要：现实世界中,有关决策的市场信息瞬息万变,因此市场充满了许多不确定因素,导致了许多管理决策风险度加大。通过建立有关市场销售风险分析的计算机仿真模型,利用计算机仿真技术模拟这些善于变化的、不确定的市场因素,对仿真结果作统计分析和风险分析,这将对管理者做决策十分重要,会大大降低决策的风险性。In the real word, the market information connected with decision-making is fast changing. So there are a lot of uncertain factors in the market, which lead to the risk of managing decision-making ascending. A computer model of simulation is build up which has something to do with risk analysis of market sell and computer simulation technology is used for simulating these uncertain market factors which are prone to change. According to this,we make statistical and risk analysis on simulational result,which help manager make decision very much. The advantage is that the risk of decision-making is descending greatly.

关 键 词：仿真 风险分析what—if方法 EXCEL工具 管理决策 

分 类 号：F224-39[经济管理—国民经济]